2024 Fantasy Football Mock Draft: 4-Round Simulation With Notable Picks
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49ers RB Christian McCaffreyRobin Alam/ISI Photos/Getty Images
The start of the 2024 NFL regular season is nearly here. When the Kansas City Chiefs and Baltimore Ravens face off on Thursday night, they'll officially usher in a brand new campaign—for the NFL and for fantasy football.
Fantasy managers are quickly running out of time to conduct drafts, which means that many managers are in cram-session mode.
Mock drafts can be a great way to squeeze in a little last-minute studying. They won't tell you who to draft, but they can help managers set positional tiers, test different draft strategies and prepare for those inevitable draft-day pivots.
Below, you'll find a look at the first four rounds of a point-per-reception (PPR) mock conducted with FantasyPros' Mock Draft Simulator. We'll run down the selections and highlight a few that stood out from each round.
Round 1
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Jets RB Breece HallJim McIsaac/Getty Images
1. Christian McCaffrey, RB, San Francisco 49ers
2. Breece Hall, RB, New York Jets
3. CeeDee Lamb, WR, Dallas Cowboys
4. Tyreek Hill, WR, Miami Dolphins
5. Ja'Marr Chase, WR, Cincinnati Bengals
6. Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR, Detroit Lions
7. Bijan Robinson, RB, Atlanta Falcons
8. Justin Jefferson, WR, Minnesota Vikings
9. Saquon Barkley, RB, Philadelphia Eagles
10. Michael Pittman Jr., WR, Indianapolis Colts
11. Garrett Wilson, WR, New York Jets
12. Jonathan Taylor, RB, Indianapolis Colts
This was one of the unexpected first rounds I've seen this preseason. Christian McCaffrey was the first overall pick, which is no surprise, but this is the highest I've seen Breece Hall go in a simulated draft.
Hall at No. 2 isn't outlandish, though. Along with McCaffrey and Bijan Robinson, he's one of the "safest" running backs available heading into 2024. It remains to be seen how a healthy Aaron Rodgers impacts Hall's production—and I do have concerns about rookie Braelon Allen stealing touches. However, Hall should be good for 1,200-plus scrimmage yards even if he has a "down" campaign.
The other interesting thing here was Justin Jefferson lasting until the eighth selection. That's less unusual, as the Minnesota Vikings star has been sliding a bit ever since rookie QB J.J. McCarthy was lost for the season.
While it is hard to truly trust Sam Darnold at quarterback, though, it's worth noting that Jefferson averaged over 100 yards per game in his four starts without Kirk Cousins last season.
That last notable pick in Round 1 was the selection of Indianapolis Colts receiver Michael Pittman Jr. He hasn't been trending as a first-round pick, and this feels quite high for a couple of reasons.
For one, we still don't know exactly what to expect from second-year quarterback Anthony Richardson. Secondly, Pittman doesn't have a track record of consistent touchdown production—he's averaged one score roughly every four games.
Round 2
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Eagles WR A.J. BrownAndy Lewis/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
1. A.J. Brown, WR, Philadelphia Eagles
2. Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Arizona Cardinals
3. Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, Detroit Lions
4. Kyren Williams, RB, Los Angeles Rams
5. Puka Nacua, WR, Los Angeles Rams
6. Davante Adams, WR, Las Vegas Raiders
7. Mike Evans, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
8. Travis Etienne Jr., RB, Jacksonville Jaguars
9. Isiah Pacheco, RB, Kansas City Chiefs
10. Derrick Henry, RB, Tennessee Titans
11. Jaylen Waddle, WR, Miami Dolphins
12. Drake London, WR, Atlanta Falcons
At first glance, it's surprising to see Philadelphia Eagles wideout A.J. Brown as a second-round selection. However, he was the first pick, meaning Team 12 could have taken Brown in the first round and Jonathan Taylor in the second and still ended up with the same players.
Both Taylor and Brown warrant late first-round selections.
Otherwise, there were no real surprises in this round. The only notable choice to highlight is that Los Angeles Rams wideout Puka Nacua went one spot ahead of Las Vegas Raiders receiver Davante Adams—and that both were selected after Kyren Williams.
Nacua was fantastic last season and had two more receptions and 342 yards more than Adams—though, two fewer touchdowns. I do wonder, however, if having a healthy Cooper Kupp impacts L.A.'s reliance on Nacua this season.
There's no doubt that Adams will remain the top target in Las Vegas, so he may actually have the higher floor. Regardless, I'd trust both receivers over Williams.
He (1,350 scrimmage yards, 15 TDs) was a league-winner last season. However, he's missed time due to injury in each of the past two years, and he could lose significant reps to rookie third-round pick Blake Corum.
"Williams and Blake Corum have both gotten first team reps the majority of August with Williams in the leadoff spot. Corum started with some twos and then moved up," The Athletic's Jourdan Rodrigue posted on X.
Don't be stunned if the Rams lead on Williams a lot less than they did a year ago.
Round 3
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Saints WR Chris OlavePerry Knotts/Getty Images
1. Chris Olave, WR, New Orleans Saints
2. De'Von Achane, RB, Miami Dolphins
3. Josh Jacobs, RB, Green Bay Packers
4. Cooper Kupp, WR, Los Angeles Rams
5. Travis Kelce, TE, Kansas City Chiefs
6. Sam LaPorta, TE, Detroit Lions
7. Rachaad White, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
8. Brandon Aiyuk, WR, San Francisco 49ers
9. Nico Collins, WR, Houston Texans
10. Rashee Rice, WR, Kansas City Chiefs
11. Josh Allen, QB, Buffalo Bills
12. Patrick Mahomes, QB, Kansas City Chiefs
There weren't really any surprises in Round 3 either, unless you count Travis Kelce going ahead of Sam LaPorta.
While Kelce has long been the clear-cut tight end in fantasy, he failed to reach 1,000 receiving yards last season and could continue to decline at age 34. LaPorta is in his second season and could see an even bigger role this year following the departure of Detroit Lions No. 2 receiver Josh Reynolds.
Still, getting Kelce toward the middle of Round 3 is fair value and makes plenty of sense here. He'd likely have been off the board by the time Team 5 was back on the clock.
Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen was the first signal-caller off the board, which comes as no surprise. He's been QB1 in virtually every mock draft I've simulated or examined this offseason. However, it was refreshing to see him go late in Round 3.
I usually advocate for waiting on a quarterback. It's one of the deepest positions in fantasy, and starting-caliber QBs can be found deep into the middle rounds. This is a fair range for both Allen and Patrick Mahomes, however, especially since Teams 11 and 12 came back for quality skill players at the top of Round 4.
I've seen Allen go as high as the middle of Round 2 in some draft simulations, and that's entirely too high.
Round 4
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Bills RB James CookWilliam Purnell/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
1. James Cook, RB, Buffalo Bills
2. Alvin Kamara, RB, New Orleans Saints
3. Malik Nabers, WR, New York Giants
4. Jalen Hurts, QB, Philadelphia Eagles
5. Kenneth Walker III, RB, Seattle Seahawks
6. Stefon Diggs, WR, Houston Texans
7. Deebo Samuel, WR, San Francisco 49ers
8. Lamar Jackson, QB, Baltimore Ravens
9. Anthony Richardson, QB, Indianapolis Colts
10. DK Metcalf, WR, Seattle Seahawks
11. D.J. Moore, WR, Chicago Bears
12. DeVonta Smith, WR, Philadelphia Eagles
I've also seen Bills running back James Cook go as high as Round 2 in some mocks. Based on his 2023 production (1,567 scrimmage yards, 44 receptions, 6 TDs), he's worth that. However, he may not replicate those numbers.
Buffalo used a fourth-round pick on running back Ray Davis, and there's a good chance the rookie sees a significant role early and often. Cook wasn't as efficient late in the season and during the playoffs last year, so the Bills may employ more of a two-back split in order to keep him fresh in 2024.
How that split shapes up remains to be seen, but Round 3 or early Round 4 is a much safer range for Cook.
There weren't any shockers in Round 4, though I'm a tad surprised that I continue to see rookie Malik Nabers go ahead of proven receivers like Stefon Diggs and D.J. Moore in mocks so consistently.
Nabers has all the tools to be a legitimate fantasy star, but the New York Giants have to find a way to consistently get him the football. I'm not entirely convinced that they have a quarterback on the roster who can do that.
Is Nabers worth a gamble at this point in the draft? Sure, but New York's quarterback situation does make him a gamble.